Heresy and NOAC 2012 Patches
A realtor friend of mine once said she was told, when asked “How is the real estate market?” to answer “Unbelievable.” It could be unbelievably good. Or, it could be unbelievably bad!
This thought comes to mind based upon conversations I’ve recently had with senior collectors and dealers. This may be heresy as a patch dealer but here goes – We may have passed the point where councils and lodges are making more patches than our wallets can afford. I mark it as possible heresy as a dealer and market maker some think we should always be upbeat and optimistic. We are. When we’re talking about true collectibles. But much of what is coming out now feels more like Beanie Babies than collectibles.
Ask yourself – how many of the new CSPs ever get put on a uniform? Or the new NOAC issues coming out? Even the delegate issues aren’t going on shirts because they’re “valuable.” To whom? If you “only” made 50, 2/ delegate member, if their aren’t 50 collectors who care then there’s more supply than demand. Not a healthy thing.
There will be a lot of fun in trading these new patches. That’s great for now and in the future. Some of these patches may maintain their interest and demand but history indicates otherwise. A recent anecdote was a contact from a Scout, now Scouter, that had a set of the 2005 Marin Yoda JSPs. We told them they may be worth $5 to $10 each. He was shocked! He thought the set should be worth at least $200 since they were bringing $100 right after that Jamboree. We told him that would have been the best time to have sold them. We were probably being optimistic in our estimate.
Where does this lead? We spend a fair amount of time discussing this amongst our team. We think it means true rare issues that fit main collecting themes such as First Flaps, WAB issues, First Issues, etc.. go up as people drop off of collecting everything even for their state. It means that secondary issues and especially manufactured issues will decline in value especially after folks have filled them in. It also means that some of these pieces will maintain and maybe even increase their value over time due to true scarcity and demand in the lodge or area. But it also means most are worthless about month after the event.
Update: After writing this, I remembered another big example. At the 1985 National Jamboree enamel/cloissone hat pins were all the rage. Where are they now? We have to price them at a certain point just for the shipping/packaging but they’re only collected for local interest. Now as a counter-point, think of OA Caldwell pins. In 1985 they could be acquired for $100 – $200. Now they often go for 10 times that, if they can be found!
on July 10th, 2012 at 7:03 pm
HERE HERE!!! For years, I tried faithfuly to “keep up” with all the new issues from Pennsylvania. Both regular issues and the contrived rarities. Stick a fork in me… I’m Done. All this new stuff has left a bad taste in my mouth. I’ll stick with the truly rare and vintage items. I, for one WILL NOT buy any more new items.
on July 11th, 2012 at 5:35 pm
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on July 11th, 2012 at 6:52 pm
I also collect Pennsylvania issues. I look forward to all new issues but have concern when a lodge produces less than 50 of a certain patch. If the patch is too limited, that makes collecting of that Lodge near impossible. Try getting a Doctor flap from Lodge 57 Enda!!! (One or 2 made) The low number of a patch does not mean high value when collectors give up collecting your lodge. Another example: the blue border Wagion 80th ann. I believe in limited patches but not to the unreal extent that some lodges are taking things.
on July 11th, 2012 at 11:42 pm
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on July 11th, 2012 at 11:46 pm
How many lodges will be producing more patches for this upcoming NOAC than there are days in the conference? How many people really care to acquire even all the material issued by their section, or lodge? Is it even a practical goal anymore without a bag full or old stuff or (heaven forbid) “cute spoofs”?
I stopped collecting my council’s stuff years ago. I really don’t even collect my lodge anymore. Other than images, or bullions, I’m just not that interested anymore… too much stuff to chase after.
on July 20th, 2012 at 8:30 am
I agree wiht Dave and Gap. The contrived rarities borders on ridiculous. Lodge have fundraiser issues, trader issues, contingent issues, special contingent issues, flap of the day issues and double secret probation ultra top secret issues for events. If fostering trading is the goal, the lodges are failing. If turning NOAC flaps into commodities and creating contrived rarities is the goal, they’ve succeeded. When you have adults in a lodge telling youth to keep one of each of their multiple contingent offerings for themselves and to sell the others when they get back as a method to pay for NOAC, they need to re-examine why they’re putting out issues in the volume/quantities that they are.
on July 20th, 2012 at 5:33 pm
[…] Comment on Heresy and NOAC 2012 Patches by Todd Rogers Hear, Hear. […]
on January 15th, 2013 at 11:52 am
[…] Scout patches are not on this list although I’ve previously written about being near a tipping point. I’ve long contended that Scouting memorabilia is a solid collectible because the items were […]